CipherM Threat Clock

How close is the moment your encryption breaks?

CipherM Threat Clock — current public state of quantum hardware progress and CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) proximity. Sources cited per-entry where possible. Estimates are conservative and shift as new data lands. Re-publish weekly.

as of 2026-04-28 · re-published weekly · cite as: cipherm.io/threat-clock

CRQC proximity by year

Subjective probability that a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer exists by year Y. Linear interpolation between knot points. Anchored on Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2023 (median expert estimate ~50% by 2034) and Mosca 2024 update.

2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2035
2038
2040
2045
0.02
0.08
0.18
0.30
0.45
0.55
0.70
0.80
0.92

Hardware milestones

superconducting transmon

IBM Quantum

Shipped

  • Eagle127 q · 2021
  • Osprey433 q · 2022
  • Condor1121 q · 2023
  • Heron r2156 q · 2024

Roadmap

  • Flamingo2025
  • Crossbill2026
  • Kookaburra2027
  • Blue Jay2028
  • Starling2029

src: ibm.com/quantum/roadmap (public roadmap dated 2024-11)

superconducting

Google Quantum AI

Shipped

  • Sycamore53 q · 2019
  • Willow105 q · 2024

src: blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip (2024-12)

trapped ion

Quantinuum (Honeywell + Cambridge Quantum)

Shipped

  • H120 q · 2020
  • H256 q · 2024
  • Helios · 2025

Roadmap

  • Apollo2027
  • Sol2029

src: quantinuum.com/news (2024-2025 announcements)

trapped ion

IonQ

Shipped

  • Aria25 AQ · 2023
  • Forte36 AQ · 2024
  • Tempo64 AQ · 2025

src: ionq.com/posts/ionq-roadmap

photonic

PsiQuantum

well-funded but less public validation than superconducting/ion-trap players

src: psiquantum.com (vendor materials)

topological (claimed)

Microsoft Azure Quantum

Shipped

  • Majorana 1 chip · 2025

src: microsoft.com/azure/quantum (2025-02 announcement)

neutral atom

Atom Computing

Shipped

  • 1180-atom array · 2023

rapid scaling potential; partnership with Microsoft announced 2024

Regulatory anchors

nist pqc standardizationFIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) finalized 2024-08
cnsa 2 0 federal deadline2035 — full transition required for U.S. national security systems
cisa critical infrastructure pressureongoing, advisory not mandate as of 2026-Q1
pci dss 4 0 crypto agilityeffective 2025-04, requires inventory and migration plan
eidas 2 0 pqc alignmentEU regulation effective 2024, PQC alignment guidance issued 2025

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